Look into my eyes and I will tell you your future…..
Pfffft.
I’m not into predictions, but I have recently been to a few research update events where plenty of people were telling us what the future of agriculture in Australia will look like.
They reckon more AI, more sensors, more automation, more cameras, less drone spraying, more glyphosate resistance, more issues with chemical registrations, and higher yields with fewer inputs.
Easy!
In this edition I thought I’d share a bit of what has recently been spruiked at grower events, and my take on it.
AI and sensors
The uses of Artificial Intelligence are bound only by your imagination. We started out with something that can do your English homework for you in 30 seconds, and it’s rapidly developing with the use of hundreds of thousands of computer servers linked together to form something like a human brain, but with a better memory and more information.
Our first uses of AI are likely to do menial tasks with data that currently take us a long time, and will evolve from there.
There’s some exciting research going on with sensors that you can put in your paddock to provide truckloads of data and then AI can spit out prescriptions for farm inputs. The sensors are getting cheaper, to the point where the dream is to distribute thousands of biodegradable sensors into your crops at low cost. I’m not so sure about this last bit, but I do believe we will have more useful sensors in our paddock/on our machines.
For now, all of this seemed to be focused on North America in the high value corn and soybean industries, with flow on effects coming to Australia later on.
The cynic would write this off as sci-fi that is a long way in the future, but given the global spend on this technology I’m sure it will be here sooner than we think.
Automation
John Deere have announced that they will have fully autonomous corn and soybean production in North America by 2030.
Meanwhile, we already have swarm farm bots in Australia that are towing boomsprays, mowers, spreaders, wheel track renovators etc.
There’s a question getting around about whether the future will be automated large scale gear, like what we are currently farming with, or will it be the use of multiple, smaller machines like swarm bot.
I guess the answer is both.
I can see a time very soon where a grower could buy a large, autonomous tractor, with the spraying and other jobs being done by small bots.
Not everyone’s cup of tea. Many farmers rightly say that there’s a lot going on with a seeder that requires an operator, but then again, there’s some very slow and boring jobs like camera spraying, deep ripping and even a rotary spader that digs 1m deep and goes 0.5kph, that may well be suited to automation.
The pioneering farmers will be doing all of this soon.
More cameras
Spot spraying cameras are developing fast, and we’re now at the point where people are signing up in their droves.
They not only save chemical, but they will help farmers kill resistant weeds that now need very expensive mixes.
Bilberry have removed their algorithm cost per hectare, and you now pay an up front algorithm fee when you buy the machine and no ongoing fee after this. This has set the cat amongst the pigeons as the capital cost of a green on brown sprayer is about the same as one that can do green on green as well. This sets the precedent for other companies to follow, and is all in the favour of the farmer.
As well as cameras on boomsprays, there’s talk of adding the same cameras to other machines. Pretty soon your header may also be mapping your paddocks for weeds, pests, disease, biomass, etc.
And what do we need to process all of this data?
AI.
Less drone spraying
Tom Wolfe from Canada visited Australia to share his research in spray application.
He and his team measured the spray distribution of a drone sprayer, and it won’t surprise you to learn that it was terrible.
Having said that, many people using drone sprayers are using them in inaccessible places where there are few other options.
Based on this research, we should do less drone spraying, but there will likely be niche areas where there’s a fit.
More glyphosate resistance
The herbicide resistance testing labs have seen a big spike in glyphosate resistance in 2024.
It’s not surprising to see this increase, but it’s the rate of increase that is worrying.
This is a big threat, and as I’ve written previously, we’re running out of alternatives.
I’ve heard that at least one of the chemical companies is testing a new knockdown, but it will be a few years away, and you can bet it won’t be cheap.
Chemical regulation
There are two big challenges here.
- The APVMA are reviewing several products that we currently use, and we may lose them.
- It’s getting really hard for companies to register new products.
We will continue to see new products emerge in the market, but the companies will need to jump through more and more hoops to get them to market.
How can we grow more with less?
We’re hearing that various countries have goals of increasing crop yields at a similar pace to what we have achieved in the past, but with about half of the inputs.
We need to prepare for a future with fewer chemical and fertiliser inputs.
Lofty, unrealistic target, or reason for optimism? It’s hard to say, but with cost pressures on farming I’m sure plenty of farmers would like to see this achieved.
All of the above mentioned technology is what we need to achieve such a target.
More things like camera sprayers, with the help of AI to continually improve algorithms and handle your data, to maintain chemical weed control, but with less chemical.
Bulk drone spraying may have a problem with coverage, but spot spraying individual weeds or weed patches with a drone may have a future.
Non-chemical weed control will clearly have a fit as well.
We will still need fertiliser, but can we improve our fertiliser efficiency?
Perhaps we could even use the tech mentioned above to vary our non-chemical weed control.
Higher seed rates in weedy areas is an easy first step, and maybe we could increase and decrease the seed kill with a Seed Terminator on the run so we still get the benefits of harvest weed seed control, without needing to run it 100% of the time.
Summary
There’s plenty of exciting new tech coming, as there always is. But it comes down to a discussion as to whether we need it or not?
Why would a farmer adopt some of this stuff?
If the answer is simply because it’s new and exciting, then it will probably just be extra cost with little benefit.
But, if the answer is to increase production while decreasing inputs, then bring it on I say.